The by-election that could change everything
The Makerfield by-election has been the centre of a potential huge shift in British politics. If Andy Burnham wins, that could completely shake up Westminster.
When thinking of big political shifts on the horizon, you wouldn’t expert that from a constituency in Greater Manchester the majority of the country wouldn't have heard of.
The Makerfield by-election really could change everything.
Sir Kier Starmer has faced a lot of political turmoil in recent weeks, after a number of senior ministers have resigned and a series of local election results that were almost terminal for the Labour Party and this current government.
Andy Burnham first expressed his desire to return to Westminster back in February when he wanted to stand in the Gorton and Denton by-election. Burnham was blocked by Labour NEC from running with them saying he needed to remain in post as Mayor as that was the job he was elected to do, and avoid any upheaval and risking the Mayoral seat to Reform.
"Although the party would be confident of retaining the mayoralty, the NEC could not put Labour's control of Greater Manchester at any risk”.
This election was subsequently won by Hannah Spencer for the Green Party.
Now, the Mayor of Greater Manchester has a second chance to become an MP.
Following the losses at the local elections, Josh Simons has stepped down as an MP to give Andy Burnham a chance to run as MP. The NEC decided to allow him to run, and is Labours official candidate for this election.
This is significant because Andy Burnham has made it clear that he intends to stand in a leadership contest to be the next Labour Leader and Prime Minister, replacing Keir Starmer.
This is why a by-election in Makerfield, somewhere that has been a Labour stronghold and never really on the political map, can change everything - in the matter of weeks.
If Andy Burnham wins on Thursday, we could see a new Prime Minister over the summer. It is closer than we think - and Keir Starmer knows full well his job is on the line.
Keir Starmer has already hinted that he would want to give Andy Burnham a big role in government, however Andy Burnham swiftly took this offer off the table. Again, indicating that he wants to challenge for the top job.
Recent polls are in Labours favour - but not as much as they’d hope.
In the 2024 General Election, Labour won the seat in Makerfield with plenty of margin. Now, although they will still win - it is much closer than they’d like. All of this bearing in mind, is with a Reform candidate that isn’t exactly squeaky clean.
All of the prediction polls that have been released show that Andy Burnham would win the seat, however the margins are close. Also, nothing is certain until polling day.
Rob Kenyon is the Reform UK candidate for Makerfield, and is realistically the only one who poses a real threat to Andy Burnham.
The background for Rob Kenyon isn’t simple. In the past, some of his comments including “I’m sexist. Sorry but I am” have been branded misogynistic and sexist by his critics and despite them being said years ago, they won’t let him forget it.
Rob’s defence for this is that he is a different person now and that everyone makes mistakes. He also says he wasn't in politics back then and that now he is a different person who only wants the best for Makerfield.
Speaking on BBC Question time, he said “I’ve got nothing but respect for women… I’ve said things years ago that I wouldn’t say now”.
If Rob Kenyon did win in Makerfield, it would stop Andy Burnham in his tracks in getting anywhere near Downing Street. However, this doesn't mean that a leadership challenge won’t be triggered. Wes Streeting is still demanding for the Prime Minister to set out a timetable for his resignation and has not ruled out ever launching a leadership bid.
When canvassing around Makerfield, it does seem like a 2 legged race between Labour and Reform however you can’t discount anyone else who is standing in this election.
We also need to consider the likes of the Green Party, Liberal Democrats and Conservatives who have also been campaigning.
It is worth pointing out that even though I didn’t walk past every house in Makerfield, I didn't see any other political signs - emphasising how much of a 2 legged race this is set to be.
A full list of candidates can be found here.
Whatever happens tomorrow, this will always be a historic by-election. A Labour MP who steps down in an attempt to give the job to their friend is something we will always remember.
If Andy Burnham does win, it is likely he will challenge Westminster both with policy, and potential leadership.
One thing is for certain though, this really will be the by-election that changes everything.